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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/22 11:04

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Flat to higher trade at midday. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   

   

   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 40. The dollar index is 7 
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude up 
$0.95. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold 
down $1.00.

   Corn

   Corn trade is flat to 1 cents lower with early gains evaporating again with 
harvest pressure and little fresh news. Harvest will expand with in some areas, 
but will remain off the pace overall. Ethanol margins remain stable with the 
energy complex moving into range-bound action. Basis remains flat to weaker 
with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon with still pockets of localized 
strength. South American looks to remain in the same weather pattern for now as 
planting continues. Weekly crop progress showed the crop 86% mature vs. 97% on 
average, with harvest 30% complete vs. 46% on average, and conditions at 56% 
good to excellent, and 14% poor to very poor. On the December contract support 
is at the 20-day moving average at $3.87  which we are just below at midday; 
with the 50-day at 3.76 the next level of support. Chart resistance is at the 
10-day at $3.92, which we tested overnight.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybeans are 2 to 4 cents higher with trade snapping back to the upper end 
of the range overnight with the recent pattern of good starts continuing, but 
we have faded again as trade rumors remain unconfirmed. Meal is flat to $1.00 
lower and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive, 
along with trade remaining overbought. The real has firmed a bit to start the 
week. Bean basis should see pressure as combines continue to roll. South 
America should make more progress this week and into the second half of the 
months with some weather issues remaining and planting pace solidly behind. 
Weekly crop progress showed 54% good to excellent, and 14% poor to very poor, 
with 94% dropping leaves vs. 97% on average, with 46% harvested vs. 64% on 
average. On the November chart, support is the 10-day at $9.30 with the upper 
Bollinger Band at 9.50 as resistance.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher with Minneapolis trade 
leading again after early gains evaporate again. The Chicago/Kansas City 
December spread is 98 cents with trade hitting new highs again to close last 
week before narrowing slightly to start the week. Remaining spring wheat will 
likely not be cut at this point with the northern weather issues. The corn/HRW 
spread has widened back to 40 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, working 
wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by Black Sea 
origin, but those prices have firmed while Australia remains dry. Weekly crop 
progress showed winter wheat planted at 77% vs. 71% on average, with 53% 
emerged same as average. The December chart support is the 10-day at $4.22 with 
the 100-day at 4.39 the next level up with the upper Bollinger band right at 
$4.35.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(CZ)

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